Despite reaching a record US$15.1 billion in agricultural exports in 2025, South Africa faces headwinds from US tariff shifts and the upcoming end of Agoa benefits. NAMC economists Bhekani Zondo and Mahlogedi Thindisa share actionable policy interventions for SA’s agri sector.
South Africa has maintained strong agricultural export growth and a competitive presence in international markets. Through the implementation of the Agriculture and Agro-processing Master Plan (AAMP), which is a collaborative social compact involving government, industry, farmer organisations and other partners, there is an opportunity to further strengthen this momentum and expand South Africa’s agricultural export footprint.
The AAMP and the Industrial Development (2026) advocate for maintenance of existing markets and diversification of the export market catalogue.
As a member of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), South Africa’s export footprint in the global market is attributed to several trade and preferential agreements or protocols within the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) framework that were negotiated with the rest of the world.
Due to the export-oriented nature of the agricultural sector, it remains prone to global disruptions due to:
- escalating and high fuel and fertiliser costs due to geopolitics,
- climate variability and the imminent El Niño phenomenon,
- protectionist posture by large, leading, and dynamic economies,
- weak biosecurity management system, and
- stringent tariffs and non-tariff measures (NTMs) in key markets
Record growth amid global disruption
In 2025, South Africa’s agricultural exports reached record levels for the sixth consecutive year since the year 2020. As of the end of 2025, agricultural exports were worth a total value of about US$15.1 billion, an increase of about 10% compared to the US$13.7 billion exported in 2024.
The African continent was the leading export destination for South Africa’s exports. In 2025, Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) accounted for a share of 42% of total agricultural exports, followed by the European Union (21%), Asia and the Middle East (20%), the United Kingdom (UK) (7%), the Americas (6%), and the United States of America (USA) with less than 4%.
Agricultural exports to the USA equalled US$516 million (R9.2 billion), down from US$535 million in 2024. This is equivalent to a 4% decline year-on-year, amounting to an approximately R580 million loss in export revenue, partly due to the 30% reciprocal US tariffs.
The Agoa challenge and US tariff friction
Under the current US administration, South Africa faced 30% reciprocal tariffs on all exports to the US, including agricultural products. However, on 20 February 2026, the Supreme Court ruled that these reciprocal tariffs of “emergency powers” under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 (IEEPA) exclude the power to levy broad import duties.
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However, South Africa is still subject to Section 301 tariffs of about 12.5%, albeit with significant exemptions of around 2,100 tariff lines and covering a large share of exports to the USA.
At least until 31 December 2026, the South African agricultural sector has duty-free access to the USA markets for some agricultural commodities under the provisions of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa). Agoa came into force in the year 2000, and it’s a unilateral trade measure by the USA, which gives preferential market access to the USA market through lower and/or no tariffs to predetermined product tariff lines, including agricultural products from SSA countries.
As early as 2014, there were conversations in the USA about South Africa being classified as an upper middle-income country and the requirement for graduation from Agoa.
Meanwhile, South Africa continued to access the USA market through both the Agoa and the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) programmes. Agoa provided duty-free access for over 1 800 products, while GSP offered duty-free treatment for an additional 3400 products from designated developing countries, including South Africa.
Until 31 December 2026, some of South Africa’s products enter the US market at 12.5% tariffs. The implication of South Africa’s graduation from Agoa is an additional tariff under the Most Favoured Nation regime of around 3.4%. Overall, the Agoa graduation amounts to an increase in tariffs to approximately 15.9%, and this would reduce the country’s competitiveness in the US market.
Commodities at risk: Macadamias, citrus, and wine
The leading agricultural commodities exposed to these market access constraints include macadamia nuts, citrus fruits (particularly oranges and mandarins), ice cream, wine, raisins, apple juice, among others.
With the USA being a key trade partner, South Africa’s graduation from Agoa could have profound economic and policy implications, particularly for the agricultural sector, which is export-oriented and highly integrated into global markets.
Strategic diversification: Securing new frontiers
Looking ahead, export diversification is likely a crucial pillar of resilience for South Africa’s agriculture sector, which should pivot to stable regional and international markets. This would necessitate the prioritisation of substantial opportunities in high-value markets across Asia, Europe, and Africa, particularly for wine, macadamia nuts, citrus, table grapes, amongst other agricultural commodities.
The government has embarked on an aggressive trade diversification effort as per the Industrial Development Strategy. This is evidenced by the recent signing of trade protocols with China on cherries, dairy, greasy wool, and avocados. Similarly, a beef protocol was signed, and exports to Middle East countries such as Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt began in earnest. Likewise, South Africa delivered on the first shipment of table grapes to the Philippines early in the year.
Consistent with the AAMP and the Industrial Strategy (2026), the aggressive trade diversification efforts should be sustained. South Africa is likely to mitigate the immediate external shock from Agoa graduation by combining proactive trade negotiations, targeted exporter incentives, effective and adequate farmer support, and investment in logistics and compliance infrastructure.
The support package would also position the agricultural sector for a sustained, competitive, diversified export market catalogue and inclusive economic growth in the evolving global trade landscape.
Considering that trade negotiations usually take a long time to be finalised, there is a need to explore immediate intervention measures that may include the provision of financial incentives for processing of fresh produce, such as fruits into high value-added commodities, as well as provision of working capital to support additional storage facilities and orchard maintenance.
- Bhekani Zondo and Mahlogedi Thindisa are agricultural economists based at the National Agricultural Marketing Council (NAMC). The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of Food For Mzansi.
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