Climate change could slash South Africa’s agricultural output by as much as 50% by 2050, potentially deepening the country’s food insecurity crisis. With one in five South Africans already facing daily hunger, this alarming projection comes from Roscoe van Wyk, a research fellow at Stellenbosch Business School.
Van Wyk said researchers have estimated that reduced rainfall and higher temperatures will cause a 25% increase in SA’s maize yield variability by 2050, leading to less predictable harvests and impacting agricultural livelihoods and food prices.
According to Van Wyk, maize is a staple food source for poor households and is already showing annual price increases of 30% due to climate impacts on agricultural production.
“Ensuring that more people have access to adequate, affordable and nutritious food calls for a new approach to supporting the agricultural sector that integrates enterprise development and climate adaptation strategies,” he said.
Reducing poverty through agriculture
Van Wyk explained that growing the agricultural sector and improving its productivity, especially in the face of climate change and a growing population, should be a key economic priority for South Africa, particularly if the national development plan (NDP) goals of an “integrated and inclusive rural economy” and one million new jobs in the agricultural sector by 2030 are to be realised.
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“Agricultural productivity growth is generally two to three times more effective at reducing poverty than equivalent growth in other sectors such as mining or manufacturing, as agricultural growth not only creates jobs and increases household incomes but also increases the food supply.”
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He said his research has found that a 1% increase in food prices reduces household welfare (the ability to meet basic needs, including food, healthcare, education and safety) by more than 20%.
“Poverty levels in South Africa steadily declined in the democratic era, but these gains have reversed since the Covid-19 pandemic and are being worsened by the impact of climate change on agricultural production and rising food prices,” said Van Wyk.
“The impact of climate change is experienced not only in decreasing rainfall and higher temperatures, which reduce crop yields, but also in the rising incidence of extreme weather events such as less frequent but heavier rainfall leading to floods, interspersed with longer, harsher periods of drought.”
Food security in rural areas, where poverty is greatest, is very closely tied to the agricultural value chain, Van Wyk noted, both in terms of employment as well as in small-scale farming for market or subsistence farming to supplement food supply and to trade or barter.
Support key to sustainable farming
“If we can get people able to feed themselves, by being employed or becoming commercially viable farmers, we can shrink the inequality gap and address poverty and unemployment. We need to be putting money and resources into the production of affordable and more nutritious food, and investing in smart agricultural technology and innovation to enhance sustainability and mitigate against climate change impacts.
“That is how we will feed the nation in future,” Van Wyk said.
He argues for a change in focus on how government supports small-scale and new-era farmers, that interventions to support enterprise development and commercial viability should be integrated with those, currently separate, to enhance sustainability and climate adaptation.
“Business-related support aimed at enabling subsistence, emerging and small-scale farmers to scale into financially viable, employment-creating food production businesses cannot be seen as a separate intervention to encouraging environmentally sustainable farming practices and implementing climate change mitigation and adaptation measures.
“Under the economic conditions of the country and in agriculture, small-scale farmers are poor; they can’t be expected to have a sustainability strategy, nor to afford ‘smart agri’ technology. Enterprise development support for small-scale farmers must be linked to climate change, and support for sustainable infrastructure and climate-resistant crops,” he said.
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