Veggie prices: Rising supply could bring relief to SA shoppers

South African fresh produce markets have seen sharp price movements this week, led by double-digit jumps in potato and tomato prices, while onions remain extraordinarily elevated compared to 2025 levels. However, as harvest volumes pick up across key production areas, the market may soon experience a shift in direction.

According to agricultural economist Conce Moraba in the latest GroundRules market update, produced by Agricultural Market Trends (AMT), current price spikes are largely driven by temporary stock shortages, but incoming supply could quickly put downward pressure on several commodities.

“A high price gets your attention. Rising supply tells you whether that price will survive,” Moraba said.

Vegetable prices: Stock tightness vs. incoming volumes

Potatoes recorded a jump of more than 15%, reaching an average of R77.49 per 10kg. While low opening market stocks provided initial support to the price, Moraba noted that heavier arrivals as the week progresses could pull the overall weekly average back down.

Tomatoes emerged as a primary driver, surging 44% to R12.24/kg despite a 7% week-on-week increase in volume. Current prices sit 19% higher year-on-year, primarily due to total market volumes remaining roughly 9% lower than the same period last year.

Moraba said high prices are expected to hold through October, though warmer weather, weaker mid-month demand, and a seasonal influx of supply starting mid-November are likely to ease pressure on consumers.

Onions remain near record highs at R148.48 per 10kg, a staggering 268% higher than a year ago. Although prices dipped about 3% last week, a major market correction remains unlikely in the short term.

“Some Limpopo producers have finished, while the larger Northern Cape volumes haven’t really started arriving. Until they do, limited supply could keep prices relatively stable,” Moraba explained.

In other vegetable developments:

Carrots rose 4% to R3.93/kg despite a 40% volume surge.
Sweet peppers averaged R13.74/kg, with green peppers rising to R10.43, while yellow (R23.87) and red (R24.03) declined.
Green beans surged 23% to R21.92/kg, sweet potatoes jumped to R5.92/kg, butternut reached R8.93/kg, and cucumbers sat at R11.99/kg.
Garlic dropped another 10% to R79.43/kg.

The sweet and sour of the fruit markets

The fruit industry reflected a mixed picture of heavy volume pressure and seasonal transitions.

Bananas dropped to R8.79/kg, following a sudden 36% jump in weekly supply. Moraba pointed out that supply could stabilise or decline toward the end of the year, offering price support.

Apples and pears saw minor dips to R10.28/kg and R8.76/kg, respectively. With overall market volumes significantly lower than the past two years, both commodities are expected to trend higher toward year-end.

Oranges showed a slight recovery to R2.56/kg, but remain 41% cheaper than a year ago due to a year-on-year surge in volume, lower export movement, and quality challenges. Meanwhile, lemons strengthened to R5.09/kg and grapefruit rose to R5.21/kg.

Among sub-tropicals and niche lines, avocados fell 5%, though tightening late-year supply should offer relief to growers. Table grapes strengthened to R74.55/kg ahead of the first local harvest in early to mid-November, pineapples increased to R8.58/kg, and blueberries reached R56.87/kg.

As market conditions evolve, producers and buyers should monitor volume flows closely rather than relying solely on headline price surges.

The full GroundRules fresh produce market update for 6 October 2026 is available in the accompanying video.

For the latest fresh produce prices and market insights, farmers and industry stakeholders can also join the GroundRules WhatsApp group.

AMT provides trusted agricultural market information and analysis through its market database, with GroundRules bringing that insight to audiences in an accessible weekly format.