South Africa’s farmers are heading into the 2026/27 summer planting season with record grain stocks behind them, but increasingly uncertain weather ahead as forecasts point to a high probability of a powerful El Niño weather pattern across Southern Africa.
While abundant carry-over stocks mean the country’s food security is not under immediate threat, producers are being urged to prepare for a potentially challenging production season through careful planning, efficient input use and improved risk management.
According to FNB senior agricultural economist Paul Makube, recent climate forecasts indicate a more than 90% chance of El Niño developing over Southern Africa.
“We are now just over two months away from the onset of the 2026/27 agricultural season, and focus has turned to weather expectations,” Makube said.
What to expect and mitigation strategies
He explained that El Niño is typically associated with dry conditions, erratic rainfall and below-normal precipitation across much of South Africa. However, he noted that the favourable rainfall received over the past two seasons has left farmers in a stronger position than during previous drought cycles.
“Nonetheless, the two consecutive seasons of higher rainfall boosted soil moisture and replenished water reservoirs across the country, which should help cushion the crops.”
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Makube cautioned that the previous 2023/24 El Niño significantly reduced maize production, with South African yields falling by 22% year-on-year, while regional production declined by as much as 15%.
“The agriculture outlook is increasingly weather-dependent going forward, and we are likely to experience a tough crop season if the El Niño weather pattern becomes stronger than expected and prolonged. Some regions may, however, record decent harvests despite the expected inclement weather conditions,” he said.
Makube encouraged producers to strengthen their resilience before planting begins.
He recommended the following measures:
- investing in drought-tolerant and heat-resistant seed varieties
- adopting conservation agriculture practices such as minimum tillage, crop rotation and soil cover
- improving irrigation efficiency through technologies such as drip irrigation
- expanding on-farm water storage and rainwater harvesting
- using precision agriculture to optimise fertiliser and fuel use
A farmer’s advice: Good planning, discipline, risk management
Free State grain and potato producer Qenehelo Mavuso believes success this season will depend on disciplined decision-making rather than optimism alone.
“As a grain and potato farmer, I am cautiously optimistic about the coming summer planting season. While there is potential for a productive season, success will depend largely on timely rainfall, careful input management, and sound planning,” he said.
He warned that rising costs for fuel, fertiliser and crop protection products continue to squeeze profitability.
Mavuso advised fellow farmers to remain disciplined in their planning by planting within the optimal planting window, selecting cultivars suited to local conditions, and managing soil fertility through regular soil testing. He also encouraged producers to monitor weather forecasts closely and remain flexible enough to adjust planting decisions as conditions change.
“Risk management should remain a priority. Diversifying crops where possible, maintaining adequate crop insurance, and keeping a close eye on production costs can help protect the business against unexpected challenges,” he said.
Despite the uncertainty, he remains confident that good management can still deliver positive results.
“Despite the uncertainties, agriculture has always required resilience, and with careful management and informed decision-making, we can position ourselves for a successful summer season,” he said.
Record harvest provides buffer
The challenging weather outlook follows one of South Africa’s strongest grain production seasons on record.
Research and projects manager Juan-Pierre Kotzé said South Africa is expected to harvest a record 17.25 million tonnes of maize, leaving substantial carry-over stocks heading into the new planting season.
“As a result, South Africa is expected to carry substantial maize stocks into the next season. Given these large carry-over stocks, there is currently no indication that the forecast El Niño event will pose a significant risk to South Africa’s maize food security,” he said.
However, Kotzé noted that weak export demand means large maize and soybean surpluses are likely to remain in the domestic market, placing continued pressure on prices as producers prepare for the next planting season.
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