Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo shared optimistic insights on the country’s commercial maize production for the 2023-2024 season. He cited data from the United States department of agriculture (USDA), which predicts a promising production figure of 15.2 million tonnes, surpassing the long-term average of 13.6 million tonnes, despite a 7% year-on-year decline.
“It is encouraging to see the colleagues at the Pretoria office of the USDA placing South Africa’s 2023-2024 commercial maize production prospects at 15,2 million tonnes,” he said, emphasising the positive trajectory.
While expressing concern over the maize crop’s yield potential in the North West, Sihlobo highlighted the USDA’s reasonable optimism about other provinces, citing adequate rainfall in those regions. “The North West hasn’t received as much rain as other provinces. Still, conditions aren’t as terrible there,” he noted.
The South African crop estimates committee is set to release data on area plantings on Tuesday, 30 January 2024, providing further insights into the overall crop size. However, Sihlobo, buoyed by the substantial rains experienced thus far, encourages an optimistic outlook for Mzansi’s maize production in the 2023/24 season.
“If we have a decent crop of over 15,0 million tonnes, South Africa would meet its annual maize consumption of about 12,0 million tonnes and remain a net exporter of maize in the 2024/25 marketing year starting in May 2024,” he added.
The positive projections are promising news for the nation, as a robust maize harvest is expected to contribute to the moderation of consumer food inflation in 2024. “These data bode well for the country’s possible moderating consumer food inflation in 2024,” concluded Sihlobo, reflecting on the broader economic implications.
The grain and feed update unfolds across three key aspects: a positive start to production, the nation’s unwavering status as a net exporter, and the dynamic landscape of trade coupled with evolving consumption trends.
1. Positive start to corn production in SA
USDA’s update on grain and feed in South Africa for the 2023-2024 marketing year reflects a favourable beginning to corn production. Adequate rainfall in most corn-producing regions is contributing to a promising start.
However, concerns arise in North West due to limited rainfall, impacting soil moisture. The eastern side of the country, despite challenges, is faring well with sufficient soil moisture following substantial January rains.
2. Maintaining net exporter status
USDA maintains its estimate for South Africa’s corn crop at 15.8 million metric tonnes for 2023-2024. This stability positions the country to remain a net exporter of corn, showcasing resilience despite challenges.
Recent bumper crops, especially in 2022-2023, have strengthened the country’s ability to sustain export markets. The forecast predicts 3.0 million metric tonnes of corn exports, underlining the agricultural sector’s robustness.
3. Trade dynamics and consumption outlook
South Africa’s corn exports have been robust, reaching 2.6 million metric tonnes in the first eight months of the 2022-2023 marketing year. Key export destinations include South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Zimbabwe, Botswana, and Vietnam.
Despite a recent decline in exports linked to Northern Hemisphere countries entering the market, South Africa is expected to persist in exporting corn, leveraging competitive pricing advantages, especially to neighbouring countries.
On the consumption front, commercial corn consumption remains steady, with an anticipated increase in human consumption. This rise is fuelled by a growing reliance on staple starches amid a challenging economic environment marked by high food inflation. The report underscores the delicate balance between domestic consumption patterns and South Africa’s pivotal role in the global corn trade.
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