Farmers in most regions of the Northern Hemisphere will begin planting their 2026-27 crops in May, and in previous seasons, they enjoyed plentiful harvests due to favourable weather conditions and affordable inputs. Thus, the world is currently awash with affordable grains and oilseeds.
However, the 2026-27 season, which begins next month, may not be as favourable as the last one. Fears of El Niño, which could have varying effects on production across different areas, are among the risks.
Higher fertiliser and fuel prices due to the Middle East conflict are another concern. Additionally, generally lower global agricultural commodity prices amid rising input costs could also disincentivise planting in some regions.
Still, it is too early to assess how much these factors will weigh on the 2026-27 crop. We do not know how these factors will influence farmers’ planting decisions and the final harvest for the 2026-27 crop in the Northern Hemisphere.
The outcome here will matter the most for global food supplies and will provide a key insight into whether the world is indeed heading towards a “global food crisis”, as others have suggested in their writings.
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For those in the Southern Hemisphere, planting summer crops will only commence in October, with similar considerations as for farmers in the Northern Hemisphere. Whether the world is heading towards a “global food crisis” also depends on farmers’ planting decisions, weather conditions, and ultimately the season’s harvest.
In the near- to medium-term, food supplies are sufficient, and I think it is very early to make any bold statement about the path ahead until there is some clarity on the points we list above.
Policy consideration
- In this uncertain environment, the main agricultural-producing countries should avoid imposing restrictions on product exports to ensure these food supplies reach key importing countries.
- Equally important is the consideration by major fertiliser and agrochemical exporting countries to practise restraint and avoid imposing export bans on products due to rising prices.
- Imposing export bans on agricultural inputs and on current agricultural supplies would be the catalyst that would lead the world into a “global food crisis”. But if countries avoid this practise, the world may be able to navigate this uncertain environment.
In essence, the real issue for households in the near term is higher fuel costs, not food supply shortages per se. Fuel significantly impacts the food supply chain through the distribution of raw materials (agricultural commodities) and processed goods to retailers.
Nonetheless, large price hikes should be avoided, as agricultural commodity prices are generally under pressure and may somewhat compensate for the rising fuel prices.
In essence, there are ample agricultural supplies for now, but from mid-2027, a lot depends on the planting seasons, which start next month in most Northern Hemisphere regions and in October in Southern Hemisphere regions.
The outcome of the 2026-27 will be a main determinant of whether the world enters a period of food crisis.
Still, poor countries that rely on imports may face challenges, especially with rising shipping costs. Still, the current environment is far better than if we encounter production difficulties in the season that is to start.
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