After weeks of consistent rainfall in certain parts of the country, farmers have been experiencing an abundant supply of water. Experts, however, warn that they should be prepared for less rainfall and drier weather conditions in the upcoming months.
University of Cape Town (UCT) climate scientist Dr Peter Johnston explained to Food For Mzansi that for the next three months, the country is not expecting above-normal rainfall. Weather conditions are more likely to be drier than wetter in the summer rainfall region of the country due to El Niño.
“All forecasts are suggesting hotter than normal, but rainfall predictions are still very uncertain and vary between above normal in some areas to below in most.
“We cannot say whether rainfall will be less than normal but we are expecting more heatwaves and thus should warn farmers to be aware of the intense heat, and to do what they can to protect crops and personnel as far as possible. The heat will be worse if the conditions are dry,” Johnston said.
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Challenges for rain-dependent farmers
Meanwhile, North West maize farmer Tshepiso Jantjies worries that less rain will pose a challenge for his farming operations as it depends on good rainfall.
“Less rainfall affects us directly as most of our planted crops depend on rain as they were planted on dry land.
“We had rain late and the soil did not get enough water. We also have too much sun; it is very hot in a way that crops are drying out. Even those in the irrigation system do not have enough water because it is too hot,” he said.
Jantjies fears that winter will be difficult for crop and livestock farmers who would not have had enough water for grazing and irrigation.
“In the area where we come from, it is hard to store water because there are no wetlands closer to most farmers. Now, if it is not raining at all it is bad as there is nowhere to store water,” he expressed.
Effects of less rainfall on agriculture
According to environmental advisor Dr Anthony Turton, a critical issue for agriculture when it comes to rainfall is the timing, duration, and intensity of the rainfall event.
He explained that timing is very crucial for critical moments in time when the seeds are germinating and when the roots are starting to grow because if the roots have not grown properly, the crop becomes very drought-prone.
“The duration of the rainfall event is how long it lasts, whether it is short or long. And it has big implications because it drives the flow of water in the rivers. So a longer rainfall event will put more water in the rivers than a shorter one.
“The intensity of the event is of absolute importance because if there is gentle rain over a long period of time, there might be a large volume of water over a long period of time without the effects of erosion,” Turton said.
He believes that because we are an arid country, the way to overcome this is by storing water, which has traditionally been stored in dams.
Changing to different water storage methods
Turton also warned that as the planet is becoming warmer and the country’s rainfall patterns are changing, it is not that there is less rainfall, but more intense rainfall over shorter periods.
“Aridity is the heart of the problem. As the climate is warming up, we are going to lose more to evaporation. But with the increasing temperature of water bodies, we are also going to start becoming more eutrophic where we get blue or green algae and water lettuce growing on the water,” explained Turton.
He said countries like Namibia and Botswana do well in storing their water because they do not store water in dams, but they store it in ground aquifers, which is a sophisticated process.
“These are the things that agriculture is likely to transition to in the future and you will find progressive farmers will start looking at those kinds of solutions and it depends on the geology underneath the farm,” he said.
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