The South African Cereals and Oilseeds Trade Association (Sacota) reports that the release of final area planted and crop production figures has once again revised South Africa’s 2025/26 summer grain output upward, reinforcing the already positive supply outlook for the 2026/27 season.
Juan-Pierre Kotzé, manager of projects and research at Sacota, said the maize crop has increased by a further 214 000 tons to 16.65 million tons, while soybean production was raised by 28 775 tons to 2.8 million tons.
He explained that these late-season upward adjustments add further volume to an already comfortable balance sheet and significantly strengthen the country’s stock position heading into the new marketing year.
“As a result, ending stocks for the current season are expected to be higher than previously anticipated, leading to elevated opening stocks for 2026/27. Maize opening stocks are projected at approximately 2.7 million tons, the highest level since 2018/19.
“Soybeans show a similar trend, with opening stocks estimated at around 400 000 tons, providing a strong base ahead of the upcoming season,” he stated.
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Favourable conditions for record season
Looking ahead, Kotzé said weather forecasts for the coming weeks remain supportive should rainfall patterns remain favourable. Maize production in 2026/27 could approach 17 million tons, while soybean output could reach 3 million tons, potentially marking a record crop for both commodities.
“When combined with historically high opening stocks, this would result in a substantial exportable surplus. Maize and maize products could exceed 4.2 million tons in exports, while soybeans could surpass 800 000 tons, positioning South Africa to supply both regionally and deep-sea markets.
“However, domestic prices remain relatively high compared to that of international exporting countries. For these export volumes to materialise, local prices will need to adjust toward export parity levels. This price softening is a necessary market mechanism that allows surplus stock to move competitively into global markets, thereby reducing domestic supplies,” he said.
With logistics also playing a key role in ensuring that produce gets to the market smoothly, Sacota stated that harbour capacity, vessel turnaround times and rail and road efficiency will all play a role in determining whether South Africa can fully capitalise on its exportable surplus.
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