Livestock prices remain high as disease and supply shocks reshape the market

South Africa’s livestock sector enters 2026 under sustained pressure as disease
outbreaks and supply constraints drive broad-based price increases across beef, pork,
poultry and sheep meat. The latest Absa AgriTrends Report shows how biosecurity
risks are reshaping the entire meat value chain.

South Africa’s livestock sector has entered a new phase of volatility, and the message from Absa’s Autumn 2026 AgriTrends Report is clear: Meat markets are no longer being shaped by normal cycles alone. They are being reshaped by disease, trade disruption, and structural supply loss.

Across beef, sheep, pork and poultry, the latest AgriTrends analysis shows one dominant trend. Prices are rising almost across the board, but for very different reasons depending on the protein.

Beef: Tight supply and Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) reset the market

Beef sits at the centre of the disruption highlighted in AgriTrends.

A combination of the 2024 drought, herd liquidation, and widespread outbreaks of FMD in 2025 has significantly reduced cattle availability. The result has been stronger carcass prices across both Class A and Class C beef.

But the story is not just about prices. It is about structure.

Without vaccination, South Africa lost its FMD-free status, which has forced a rethink of the entire livestock biosecurity system. The AgriTrends Report notes that this shift is not temporary; it is structural.

The government’s declaration of FMD as a national disaster has enabled stronger coordination, but the long-term direction is now clear. South Africa is moving towards an FMD-free status with vaccination approach

Export markets have already felt the impact. Data from Red Meat Industry Services shows beef exports fell sharply in 2025, down 26.1% year on year. The temporary loss of export market access occurred during a period of supportive global demand and higher prices, which could have provided an opportune window to capitalise on favourable market conditions.

Sheep meat: Recovery after global oversupply

The lamb and mutton market tells a different story in the latest AgriTrends outlook.

In 2023, global prices dropped sharply due to flock liquidation in Australia and New Zealand. That oversupply pushed prices down across international markets, which also affected South Africa.

However, conditions began to shift in 2024 and 2025. As global supply tightened again, prices started to recover.

The AgriTrends Report highlights that South Africa’s sheep meat sector is structurally tight. Lower slaughter numbers in 2025 and at the start of 2026, indicate the start of moderation from the higher drought-induced slaughter numbers in 2024. This is expected to limit the downside price risks.

At the same time, demand from the Middle East remains strong, especially for carcass and half-carcass exports. This helps to stabilise pricing and reduce extreme volatility. Against this backdrop, heightened geopolitical tensions introduced an emerging logistics risk for Middle East‑bound lamb trade.

Click here to download Absa’s Autumn 2026 AgriTrends Report.

Pork: Disease pressure drives multi-year highs

Pork markets are under sustained pressure, and AgriTrends identifies biosecurity as the key driver.

Outbreaks of African swine fever and FMD have disrupted supply chains, while containment measures such as quarantines and controlled slaughter have reduced throughput.

Unlike cattle, there’s still no approved FMD vaccine for pigs in South Africa. This makes the sector highly vulnerable to sudden supply shocks. As a result, pork prices have reached multi-year highs in 2026.

The AgriTrends analysis also points to a second factor supporting prices. Consumers are increasingly shifting towards more affordable protein options, and pork is benefiting from this substitution effect as beef and poultry prices rise.

Poultry: Global shocks feed into local prices

Poultry remains South Africa’s most important and most consumed protein, but it is also highly exposed to global supply shocks.

According to AgriTrends, the sector was significantly affected when Brazil, a key supplier of mechanically deboned meat, reported its first outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza in the first half of 2025. This triggered temporary trade disruptions that quickly pushed up South African poultry prices. Because South Africa imports about 20% of its broiler meat needs, global events quickly translate into domestic price pressure.

Even though imports from Brazil have resumed and feed costs have improved due to strong maize and soybean harvests, poultry prices remain elevated. The relative affordability of poultry continues to shift protein consumption towards lower-cost options and is expected to sustain strong poultry demand and prices in the months ahead.

A structural shift across the meat sector

One of the strongest messages in the latest AgriTrends Report is that South Africa’s livestock sector is undergoing a structural reset. Biosecurity is now the central variable, shaping prices, trade flows and production decisions.

International standards set by the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) are becoming increasingly important as countries adjust to new disease realities.

The report also highlights Brazil as a key case study. Its success in building a vaccination-based FMD control system shows how disease management can support long-term export growth, even under vaccination regimes.

Outlook: Higher prices are here to stay

The AgriTrends outlook, supported by the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP), suggests that even under improved conditions, meat prices are unlikely to return to pre-FMD levels.

Two scenarios dominate the forecast:

Domestic supply stabilises but exports recover slowly, keeping prices trading sideways at the current highs.
Export access improves more meaningfully, supporting stronger producer prices reinforced by increased volumes moving through export channels.

In both cases, AgriTrends shows the same conclusion: Livestock prices remain structurally higher.

The latest AgriTrends Report makes one thing clear: South Africa’s meat sector is no longer defined only by supply and demand.

It is defined by disease, resilience and the ability to adapt to a permanently more complex biosecurity environment.