While consumers are still pressed and having to dig deeper into their pockets for basics, the agricultural sector, at the same time, is slowly recovering from both local and global shocks, the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) inflation brief for August 2025 revealed.
The report stated that locally, maize prices resumed their downward trend in August, despite a positive trajectory in global markets. White
maize prices dropped by 13.1% month on month, while yellow maize fell by 8.0% for the same period.
“A substantial upward revision from the Crop Estimates Committee in August contributed to the decline, with the 2024/25 maize crop now expected to be 23.0% higher than 2023/24 production and 3.5% above the five-year average. Producer deliveries for August 2025 exceeded August 2024.
“However, total regional exports fell sharply (-70.1%) compared to August 2024, reflecting improved production prospects supported by favourable weather in key importing countries following the 2024 drought. Wheat prices, which largely reflect import parity, softened month to month in line with international trends and a stronger local currency,” the report stated.
Movement in meat prices
Meanwhile, domestic meat prices increased in August compared to July, mostly in line with global trends, despite a stronger rand.
“In the beef market, A2 /A3 carcass prices were stable month to month but remained high year on year (32.6%), underpinned by supply disruptions from major feedlots due to the recent foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in recent months.
“Sheep meat prices also recovered in August after a brief dip in July, suggesting strong demand as beef carcass prices remain elevated,” the BFAP report stated.
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Despite FMD, which has caused havoc in the Free State, the livestock industry continues doing well and being resilient, resulting in minimal disturbance in the value chain.
Fresh produce and summer crop outlook
“In terms of fresh produce at local municipal markets, potatoes recorded their lowest monthly average price since November 2022, as August sales volumes exceeded those of August 2024 and August 2023 by 14% and 11%, respectively. Although prices typically trend higher in the second half of the year, increased supply has made 2025 resemble 2022, diverging from the patterns observed in most other recent years.
“While the extent of price decreases is concerning for producers, it offers some relief to South African consumers when passed through by retailers. In the fruit sector, apple producers are benefiting from strong juice prices and a successful export season. Lower cold storage stocks in the EU compared to a year ago have contributed to a reduction in supply to the domestic market.”
The report gave a hopeful status, that with a stronger Rand relative to the dollar, continues to cushion the local market from rising international
prices. A positive summer crop outlook is helping sustain lower grain and oilseed prices year on year, which is expected to filter through to the cost of core staples and animal feed.
“In the coming months, key factors influencing the stability of food commodity prices will include the exchange rate movements, input costs such as energy and fuel, and the effectiveness of animal disease containment strategies,” the report stated.
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